Mogic thinks

With a combination of a small number of people + software + servers and robots.
We are promoting a new era of company management.
I hope to share some of the process in this section.

Representative Director Yoichi Yamane

2021.10.25

No expectations, no anticipation.

Expected value is a probability term, and the definition from Wiki is "a weighted average of all values of a random variable with probability weights.

To put it crudely, it is a prediction that after a few times, you will converge on this answer.

We often use it because running a company is close to making arrangements for the future.

In recent years, Mogic has become more organized and authority has been decentralized, so that rank-and-file members handle more things related to money and resources.

It is easy to calculate the expected value of costs that have been incurred in the past or that are likely to be used by other companies.

However, the most difficult thing to do is to figure out how to invest in something that you have never spent money on before and have never heard of elsewhere.

There is no way to calculate the expected value because there is no historical data.

There is a similar statement in the rest of the wiki definition.

The expected value is meaningful when similar events occur relatively evenly. The concept of expected value is meaningful when similar events occur relatively evenly, and the concept of expected value does not fit in cases where events with very extreme values are very rare. For example, in the case of "insurance" or "lottery," the expected value is negative because the chance of obtaining a large insurance payout or winning a lottery ticket is very rare, but it is not appropriate to judge that it is meaningless to purchase insurance or buy a lottery ticket.

That's when "anticipation" makes its appearance.

The criteria is to see who will be excited about this investment and how they will talk about it in a cheerful and happy way.

If it's too vague, it's hard to use, so I make it a little more formulaic, but I still end up seeing the faces of the people I talk to.

It's strange because it's the ones where expectations are unpredictable that everyone seems to enjoy.