Mogic considers

The end of seemingly endless options

There is rarely any rustling or flapping within Mogic.

It would be fair to say that they are taking it easy, but from a management perspective, I believe it is because they are not "responding to the work at hand.

Don't make decisions today about what to do today, but consider today the possibility of choices that are far over the horizon.

If you ask, "When do you mean far in the future?" the answer is, "At least six months, at most a few years, and likely to happen a decade from now.

As I mentioned in my previous article, "The Experience of Three Years for Chestnuts and Eight Years for Persimmons," I take the long view anyway.

Then why do you think so far into the future?" If you ask me, I answer, "Because the base uses an options trading scheme, so I like a future where no one can make a quick decision.

Options trading, a term with which I am a bit unfamiliar.

For clarity, I will draw on the Greek philosopher Thales.

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Option Trading
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In the sixth century B.C., there was a scholar named Thales on the Greek island of Samos.

He was proficient in mathematics and astronomy and is said to have predicted the eclipse of the sun that occurred in 585 B.C. But he was poor, and someone cursed him, saying, "What good is your learning?

He paid some money to a man who had a millstone to press oil from olives, a specialty of the island, and made a reservation to rent the millstone during the olive harvest season.

A few months later, the olive crop that year was so good that no more millstones were needed on the island.

Thales is said to have profited from subleasing the millstones at a high price.

This is believed to be the first options transaction in world history.
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What is interesting is that the value created in the future (a large olive crop) could be reserved for a small decision today (some money).

Instead of saying, "I don't know what the future holds," I'm willing to bet a little bit on a possible future.

A little bit ahead of the curve and leave a slight sign, like Hansel and Gretel's bread crumbs.

We weigh the value of what we are willing to lose first against the value we will gain later, for the sake of the return journey we are "supposed" to take.

We receive the slightest signal in the face of the myriad forks in the road of an uncertain future.

Well, well, I dressed up like that.

I am sure the following objections will be raised.

There are so many branches of the future, you can't possibly think of them all.
It depends on whether we're talking about the future 6 months or 24 months in the future.
Twenty-seven options, three for each of the three future locations, would take days just to consider.
If you borrow too much of a small resource up front, you end up with a lot of resources.
You can't predict what's going to happen, so there's no point in even thinking about it.
"You're going to overcomplicate it, and you're going to get stuck.
I have no idea how to do it.

Yes, it's hard because we don't know.

Because it is so difficult, we have no choice but to find time to continue to create options based on this and that assumption, and when the time comes, we must take them out one by one and carefully verify them.

Because the premise of possibility is often off, we create it and then review it later, and then create it and review it again.

You can't make too much, but you can't make too little either, so you just keep going.

The options that should be created and those that do not need to be created should become apparent.

At the end of seemingly endless efforts (if this is called pure persistence), will we one day reach what we call intuition?

Aside from the results, I don't dislike this kind of thing, so I guess I'm just making it out of habit.