With a combination of a small number of people + software + servers and robots
We are moving forward with a new era of company management.
I hope to share some of that process with you in this section.
October 24, 2022
At the beginning of a new term, we begin to investigate the level of accuracy of the forecasts we came up with just one year ago.
As I talk and write here and there, I carefully collect them one by one and see what has been misaligned. Strangely enough, the gap between expectation and reality has lessened as the years have passed.
Of course, this is because we have found and addressed the factors that caused the discrepancies, but I think the biggest reason is that we now have a gradation of expectations.
We estimate at a 90% predictability level for projects that we can control, at a 60% predictability level for those that we work with close outsiders, and at a 15% predictability level for completely new business plans.
The degree of predictability is not vague, but is determined by synthesizing the extent to which the elements are comprehensively identified, the range of variation for each element, the degree of interaction among the elements, the order in which they affect each other, and whether the intensity of the elements themselves will increase or decrease.
Once the degree of predictability is determined, we can then create a formula to express it and let the computer do the simulation, or use graphic symbols to decipher the flow.
Take the example of a project to launch a new service.
There is one project manager, one designer, and one engineer. Of the three, the designer is inexperienced and wants to use an unknown technology for the new service, and the projection level is 80%, as he wants to create the new service in approximately 4 months.
The unpredictable 20% is mainly due to the level of growth of the members, the availability of unknown technology and alternative options, how the concept is put together, and how it fits in with other work, so if we tighten the project at key points to keep the variability there in an appropriate range, we can probably do it.
That said, it's no trick to only make things highly predictable, so I always weave in less predictable things and chase after the moments that flash before my eyes.