Mogic considers

I think with a head that reaches and cools in the irritating winds

In the old saying, this time of year should be called "Atsukaze-tsuki" (warm winds prevailing).

The sun is shining and warm winds are blowing from a looming high-pressure system.

Today, however, the heat is so intense that it can be described as a "caustic windstorm.

It feels like a physical tease, like the heat of getting back at you.

I had to take a breather to catch my breath, so I took a summer vacation a little early and went far away from home.

Of course, I take time off to take care of my overheated body, so I may or may not look at my company e-mail or chat once a day.

It is because we receive very little information about the company compared to usual that we are able to see the company in a surprising way.

"You've been unusually urgent since this morning, how are you going to proceed?
"Today is Tanabata, so they are planning to hold an event.
We're discussing a new workflow, but how do we decide what to do?

With such concern, I can't help it, so I pretend to forget about it.

It was a pretense, but I was so distracted by the breeze that blew through that I forgot about it.

The next morning, when I looked at it as I remembered it, all that remained was a trace that something had been spoken.

I think, "Hmmm, I guess they self-organize on site.

When worrying about others only leads to loss, the next thing you think about is yourself.

I wonder if I was able to do what is natural for a manager to do. Did we constantly ask, 'What should we do and what should we not do?

If I were to return to the city in the heat of the sun with the intention of getting my cool head working again, I would have to start with that first, right?

Compression of intelligence at the social level.

As computers and the Internet have become more widespread, we are able to look at information in more and more detail.

For simplicity's sake, let's take the example of an advertisement.

In the past, when we placed an ad in a magazine, we could somehow guess who would see it based on circulation and readership, and we somehow received more inquiries and orders.

When this goes online, the number of times the ad is displayed, its location, the number of clicks, and from the click to the purchase are displayed as exact numbers.

In some cases, we even know what the user was doing with the mouse.

This is great enough, but recently the scope of what we can know has expanded even further.

It is a feeling that can be traced back quite far and deep, zoooooooooooooooooooooooooong.

Apparently, the evolution of technology increases the dimension of observation, and I will start with a quote from the text that mentions it.

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The Life Nobody Knows: Assembly Theory Reveals Life and Its Origins
Sarah Imari Walker (Author), Jun Mizutani (Translator)
h ttps:// str.toyokeizai.net/books/9784492800997/

Later, when human society invented the microscope and telescope, more complex ways of "seeing" evolved.

Microscopes made it possible to see into the previously unknown microscopic world, leading to various discoveries ranging from living cells to elementary particles.

Telescopes made it possible to see farther into space, and satellites orbiting other planets and planets orbiting other stars were discovered.

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In this sense, our technology is a nearby filter, so to speak, through which we evolve to see reality in new ways.

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Thus, in the broadest possible sense, technology is the knowledge (information selected over time) that makes possible the existence of something that could not originally exist, and the application of that knowledge.

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One of the most widely discussed of the technologies currently emerging on the planet is artificial intelligence.

It is often argued that artificial intelligence is insubstantial and even out of the evolutionary stream.

But the technologies we are developing today - large-scale language models, computer vision, automated devices - are not divorced from the biosphere that created them.

It is nothing less than a new capacity of life realized again in a new substrate.

And with it, intelligent life on a new scale, a planetary scale, is about to emerge.

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Artificial intelligence, which is being developed, is another important piece because it can process data on a large enough scale to see objects as deep in time as we do.

In this sense, artificial intelligence is another technology of perception.

Compress the vast amount of data that describes us as a collective (like a society) into a length and timescale that individual humans can understand and interact with.

In doing so, it allows us to observe ourselves for the first time in a fundamental and more abstract way.

Some people marginalize ChatGPT not because it is human-level intelligence (as has been argued here and there), but because it compresses social-level intelligence to the human scale.
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I wanted to convey the nuance well, and the quote is long.

This is the part that concerns me the most

'It's not human-level intelligence, it's social-level intelligence compressed onto a human scale.'

What this means is that the essential way to deal with artificial intelligence is "not" an extension of daily conversations and meetings.

In other words, I think that the empirically acquired technique of conversing one-on-one or discussing with several people does not fully raise the dimension of observation.

Sensibly speaking, you need tension (and from the perspective of artificial intelligence, many attention heads and layers) to have an instantaneous ba-ba-ba conversation with the entire society that has been accumulated so far.

And since a huge amount of information is delivered in a folded format, the world has become a convenient but also frightening place to live in.

Upside and Downside

Developing cloud services as a product is easy to agree upon internally.

There is not much reason to object to this, since it will result in sales and profits if a contract is signed.

If there is, it is only to ask what they are going to do if they don't sell.

On the other hand, internal business systems are surprisingly difficult to develop, even though they are the foundation that supports cloud services.

Perhaps this is because, unlike commodities, it is difficult to relate each workflow directly to profit and loss.

Many people ask whether systemizing their operations will be profitable or wasteful, or whether it will require too much time and effort to maintain.

But the truth is that it is precisely what we don't know sensibly that we should try to estimate once how important it is.

As an example, let's take a small slice of the cloud services business.

Register inquiries, reply to inquiries, receive consultations, provide quotes, sign contracts, send invoices, confirm payments, perform accounting procedures, and analyze data.

I will include the approximate time it will take for these.

Per case
Register an inquiry: 5 minutes
Reply to inquiry: 5 minutes
Receive a consultation: 15 min.
Provide a quotation: 15 minutes
Sending and signing a contract: 30 minutes
Create and send invoice: 10 minutes
Confirming payment: 10 minutes
Perform accounting: 15 minutes
Analyze data: 15 minutes
Total time: 2 hours

and then expand the number of cases.

20 hours for 10 cases
200 hours for 100 cases
2,000 hours for 1,000 cases

and can be simply derived.

If the value of one hour is considered low, say 5,000 yen, 10 cases are worth 100,000 yen, 100 cases are worth 1,000,000 yen, and 1,000 cases are worth 10,000,000 yen.

If this were a per month figure, it would float between 100,000 yen and 10 million yen in perpetuity.

In other words, it is considered more reliable and sustainable to improve the efficiency of business systems than to cover them from the accumulation of sales.

Moreover, this calculation is cut out as a part, so the operations are really connected to each other and can be a multiplier effect.

In business flavor, the assumption is that the upside effect is unlimited and the downside impact is only the development cost incurred (actually, there is an opportunity loss, but it is exempted).

To put it in everyday terms, "If it works, it's very effective; if it doesn't, you just lost the time and effort you put into it.

If you believe that you can make a business system, then you can make a business system.

First, create a small business system and measure the actual time spent floating.

On schedule, below schedule, or above schedule?

If it wasn't on schedule, why was it off?

We will just keep on making and changing things for generations, and when the day comes that everyone finds it useful, we will do it.

Summer app development, strange gossip

Whenever it begins to rain, summer application development begins.

For those who don't know, Mogic makes experimental free apps three or four times a year on a short-term basis.

A New Year's greeting app to celebrate the New Year, an April Fool's Day app full of jokes, an in-house entertainment app to come up with, and finally, a summer vacation app to work on now.

New Year's Eve App】 https://microtech.mogic.jp/category/01002000
Other Entertainment】 https://microtech.mogic.jp/category/01005000
Seasonal Apps】 https://microtech.mogic.jp/category/01001000

In past years, we would gather interns to get started, but this time we decided to make a special effort to do it with just our employees.

This is because there has been some strange gossip among employees over the past few years.

It always happens when I put out my empty plastic bottles and can bottles at a collection point a short distance away.

He says he is often stopped by strangers along the way.

It was also a bizarre situation that is rarely seen.

As one person put it, "An old woman who had started to shake her hair out of her head was questioning me very hard."

As one person put it, "The kids kept following me around laughing and praising me."

As one person put it, "I saw someone walking backwards in front of me and we had perfect eye contact."

It is hard to believe that this is the case.

This must be the work of a demon or something unseen!

When we were so excited, we were suddenly led to create an application for a summer evening that would recreate our experience.

The release date is unknown because we are about to develop the application and it will probably not work out and be liveried in the end as usual.

This is the first application (supposedly) that allows 3D operation from a web browser, so please look forward to it.

The end of seemingly endless options

There is rarely any rustling or flapping within Mogic.

It would be fair to say that they are taking it easy, but from a management perspective, I believe it is because they are not "responding to the work at hand.

Don't make decisions today about what to do today, but consider today the possibility of choices that are far over the horizon.

If you ask, "When do you mean far in the future?" the answer is, "At least six months, at most a few years, and likely to happen a decade from now.

As I mentioned in my previous article, "The Experience of Three Years for Chestnuts and Eight Years for Persimmons," I take the long view anyway.

Then why do you think so far into the future?" If you ask me, I answer, "Because the base is using an options trading scheme, so I like a future where no one can make a quick decision.

Options trading, a term with which I am a bit unfamiliar.

For clarity, I will draw on the Greek philosopher Thales.

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Option Trading
h ttps:// w.wiki/EJEy

In the sixth century B.C., there was a scholar named Thales on the Greek island of Samos.

He was proficient in mathematics and astronomy and is said to have predicted the eclipse of the sun that occurred in 585 B.C. But he was poor, and someone cursed him, saying, "What good is your learning?

He paid some money to a man who had a millstone to press oil from olives, a specialty of the island, and made a reservation to rent the millstone during the olive harvest season.

A few months later, the olive crop that year was so good that no more millstones were needed on the island.

Thales is said to have profited from subleasing the millstones at a high price.

This is believed to be the first options transaction in world history.
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What is interesting is that the value created in the future (a large olive crop) could be reserved for a small decision today (some money).

Instead of saying, "I don't know what the future holds," I'm willing to bet a little bit on a possible future.

A little bit ahead of the curve and leave a slight sign, like Hansel and Gretel's bread crumbs.

We weigh the value of what we are willing to lose first against the value we will gain later, for the sake of the return journey we are "supposed" to take.

We receive the slightest signal in the face of the myriad forks in the road of an uncertain future.

Well, well, I dressed up like that.

I am sure the following objections will be raised.

There are so many branches of the future, you can't possibly think of them all.
"It depends on whether we're talking about the future six months from now or twenty-four months from now.
Twenty-seven options, three for each of the three future locations, would take days just to consider.
If you borrow too much of a small resource up front, you end up with a lot of resources.
You can't predict what's going to happen, so there's no point in even thinking about it.
"You're going to overcomplicate it, and you're going to get stuck.
I have no idea how to do it.

Yes, it is hard because we don't know.

Because it is so difficult, the only way is to find time to continue to create options based on this and that assumption, and when the time comes, to take them out one by one and carefully verify them.

Because the premise of possibility is often off, we create it and then review it later, and then create it and review it again.

You can't make too much, but you can't make too little either, so you just keep going.

The options that should be created and those that do not need to be created should become apparent.

At the end of seemingly endless efforts (if this is called pure persistence), will we one day reach what we call intuition?

Aside from the results, I don't dislike this kind of thing, so I guess I'm just making it out of habit.

A Safety Net of Margins

From all over the company, I hear "make room for more space," "think about the extra power," and "make room for more room.

Of course, in terms of mental health, spaciousness is a good thing.

We can prepare well and proceed slowly.

By having more space, we can work in our own way.

What an idealistic view, but essentially derived from realistic coping.

Why create margins? What if it is not just for the workers?

The answer is to correct the organization's operations autonomously and automatically.

We use Parkinson's Law as the theoretical foundation for this.

Let's start with the famous law proposed by a British political scientist

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Parkinson's Law
h ttps:// w.wiki/mP8

Originally, the law was the result of a bird's-eye view of the British bureaucracy, showing how bureaucrats create jobs and conduct administrative operations for their own mutual benefit, hiring new subordinates to match, and how the more budgets they get, the more they grow.

Parkinson's law, in a nutshell, can explain, for example, that the number of officials continues to grow independent of the amount of work they do.

The specific laws are

First Law.
The amount of work expands until all the time given for completion is met

Second Law.
The amount of expenditure expands until it reaches the amount of income

It consists of the above two components.

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Simply put, "If you leave it alone, the more you have, the more you will use.

I will try to modify Parkinson's Law a little more according to the company's business.

First Law.
In an individual, the amount of work expands until all working hours are met.

The Second Law
In a company, the budgeted expense amount expands until it reaches the budgeted sales amount

The expected solution derived from this first rule is

The probability of overtime increases as the workload increases.
As long as there are working hours, there is no review of work that really doesn't need to be done anymore.

in Tokyo

The expected solution derived from the second law is

Even if sales are not achieved, expenses will be added as planned.
As long as there is money on hand, there is no need to reevaluate work that does not really need to be done.

in Tokyo

If you think these unintentional expansions are dangerous, it is best to limit them before they are full and overflowing.

If the current vessel overflows, then deliberately prepare a slightly smaller vessel.

The smaller vessel fills first, which can sound the alarm.

If there is time for a regular vessel to fill up, it is easier to take action.

In terms of personal household finances, it is similar to the "method of accumulating deposits by deducting money right after payday.

The salary after the deductions, i.e., the small vessel, is used to make ends meet for the month.

As long as we can do it in a small vessel, we can consider it to be working.

If it spills out of a small bowl, you know something is wrong.

If it is unavoidable because of a sudden emergency, there are ways to use the extra funds that have been accumulated.

In terms of personal work, if you plan your schedule with "extra energy" in mind at the beginning, someone will notice before you use up all your energy.

If it's company money, you can "spare" it in advance so you can quit the work you don't need before you run out of money.

Yes, margins are not just for a laid-back atmosphere or a change in work style.

From a management perspective, it is a device that sets up a safety net, and moreover, it is the starting point for an autonomous and automatic correction by the network of organizations.

Discovery and speculation on shared folders

We throw it away at will, on the spur of the moment, or after discussing it with each other.

With the momentum of the organizational change in April, I threw out what I didn't need.

There wasn't much stuff, but what there was a lot of was digital files.

It's also not a personal folder, but rather a shared folder with someone else.

If it's yours, you can throw it away and say, "Oh, oh, I don't need it.

However, if the file is in a shared folder, I can't get to it because I think, "Maybe that person is using it.

Files and files piled up with such invisible care.

It's not going to rot, it's not going to break, but we have to do something about it.

So, we looked at each other and said, "This is nice," "Isn't the date old? I said to them, "This is nice," "Isn't the date old?

What a surprise, what a shared file, almost 90% of the files are gone!

What can I say, this is the most difficult thing for people to do.

Speculation that "someone will use it" or "someone needs it."

Someone is born while saying "someone, someone" and "someone unknown.

The sprawling file is littered with people who are just wandering around looking for that person.

Oh, this is becoming a spine-chilling and scary story.

There is only one way to get out of a situation like this.

I guess the only way is to not look back, but to lean on each other's shoulders.

Beyond the normalizing business matrix

There is a cause, there is a result, it is easy to understand.

Three causes, with shading effects on the results, are difficult to understand.

If there are more than ten causes, and if the first cause produces an intermediate result and then reacts in a chain reaction with other causes, it becomes very difficult to scrutinize.

The reason I made this a lengthy article is because I thought that the more factors there are, the more difficult it would be to identify the cause of the result.

However, multivariate analysis, which combines many factors in a model, sensitivity analysis, which simulates the blurring range by manipulating many factors this way and that, and others.

When we look at the business scene to apply these factors, there are still many, too many factors to be included.

I was doing some detailed research on multivariate analysis to see if I could improve the view even if there were many factors, and I found an application that I thought would be a good match for the logic of generative AI.

So, let's start with an overview of multivariate analysis

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Multivariate Analysis
h ttps:// w.wiki/Dvsp

Multivariate analysis (English: multivariate analysis) is a method of summarizing the characteristics of multivariate data. Data summarization simplifies the characteristics of data and makes them easier to analyze.

Multiple Regression Analysis, Principal Component Analysis, Independent Component Analysis, Factor Analysis, Discriminant Analysis, Quantification Theory (Class I, II, III, IV), Cluster Analysis, Conjoint Analysis, Multidimensional Scaling (MDS).
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Then, as an example of application to reality, let's look at the methods of human geography.

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In human geography, multivariate analysis is an important technique in regional analysis.

Since the late 1950s, multivariate analysis has been used in the development of theories of econometrics.

In human geography, multiple regression analysis is used to determine connectivity among regions, principal component analysis is used to analyze the internal structure of cities, and factor ecological analysis and regional classification of isogenic and functional regions are conducted through factor and cluster analysis.

When performing multivariate analysis in a regional analysis, a geographic matrix is first created.

An attribute matrix would be created for setting up an isogenous region, and an interaction matrix for setting up a functional region, and then multivariate analysis would be performed.

[Supplemental] Geographic Matrix https://w.wiki/DvvB
Berry (1964) takes attributes in the rows and regions in the columns, and the geographic event for the region in question is displayed at the intersection of each row and column (the matrix component). This allows all attributes for all regions to be displayed as a matrix.
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Geography matrices, or matrices of "attributes" and "regions" in geography, are used to prep the calculation.

The idea was that if we could construct a business matrix with components such as "job type" and "activity," then multivariate analysis via AI might yield useful insights.

What kind of future landscape can be seen beyond such thought experiments?

Yes, the first thing that comes to mind is the vast amount of business matrices that can be collected in real time globally, regardless of whether it is your company or another company.

Arithmetic operations using business matrices too grand for people to handle determine their position on the economic board and make them choose their actions.

Unfortunately, the logic is quickly propagated, imitated, and used by everyone in the blink of an eye.

If this is the case, the greatest risk is that they will converge as similar firms by blindly believing in the same big and small logic.

In short, the selection of strategies may be the same as at the present time, regardless of whether large numbers of operations are performed or not, or, conversely, the goal may be to find the most microscopic differences and strive for decisive excellence.