Mogic considers

The experience of "three years for peaches and chestnuts, eight years for persimmons

As the saying goes, it takes a long time for a small seed to sprout, take root, bloom, and bear fruit.

Yes, three years must seem like an "old-fashioned unit" that is hard to imagine in these speedy times.

You may have the image of an IT company that follows a PDCA (Plan/Do/Check/Action) cycle in three-month or one-month increments, but at Mogic, we often use this three-year unit without even looking at it.

They start something new with a flurry of vigor, but don't look back in the slightest after six months or a year or so.

But even those three years are only seen as the first step.

I ponder from various angles whether we are properly connected toward the 15th year, which is about five turns of three years.

As I write this, it seems too long-winded to be okay, but there is some numerical support for this pacing.

Please bear with me as I go on for a bit longer than I would like.

First, estimate the amount that should be built up per day, assuming we evaluate three years from now.

To simplify the story, we assume a linear summation.

365 days x 3 years = 1095 days, and if 1095 days is 100 points, we can add about 0.09 points per day.

If we were to evaluate at six months, then half 182 days of 365 days per year would be 100 points, adding 0.5 points per day.

If the project goes well, the difference in points accumulated does not appear to be that great.

But what if many projects don't get off the ground until the first 60 days?

If progress is slow in the beginning, how much intensity do we need to chase behinds in the remaining days?

If only half of the daily results can be achieved in the first 60 days, a six-month project would make progress of (0.5 ÷ 2) × 60 days = 15 points, and the remaining 85 points must be done in 182 days - 60 days = 122 days, which rises to 0.7 points per day.

For a 3-year project, if you do the remaining 97.3 in 1095 days - 60 days = 1035 days with a progress of (0.09/2) x 60 days = 2.7 points, you will remain at 0.09 points, almost unchanged.

I've put together a rather cumbersome list of numbers, but the bottom line is that I believe that looking at a project in three-year increments eliminates the "stagnation bias that tends to occur at the beginning of a project" and allows us to more genuinely assess the social value of the business or work.

If you have a project with several people, communication is fumbling at the beginning, their understanding of the issues is mixed, their previous experience is varied, and they may or may not be motivated.

It's similar for individuals: they don't enjoy it as much as they first thought they would, they hit a wall and stop, and then they end up procrastinating and trying something different because they don't have any constraints.

If we can continue for three years, minus those things, one meaning should be established.

And here is a concrete example.

Mogic released three years ago, and the following is an excerpt from the history of the company

Apr. 2022 Release of the class support system, Pholly, at the lowest price range in the industry
April 2022 Introduction of flexible working hours system
Sep. 2022 ISMS certification, an international standard for information security, is acquired and released.
November 2022 E-learning system LearnO rebrands and releases management screen in commemoration of its 10th anniversary.

If you think back to how these have evolved to date, yes, 70% are good and 30% need improvement.

Therefore, "these directions make sense socially.

What a thought!

Well, even so, it is not always a good thing to introduce such an uncommon measure.

That is why we have to be careful about negative impact.

One of these is the resource issue of the amount of cognition that can be allocated per day.

Let me try to express this with a few simple calculations.

The amount of cognition available to one person is assumed to be 100%.

When this cognitive amount is exceeded, the threshold at which the person begins to say "I'm tired~" and performance on the following day and beyond declines.

If, in working on a project that will be evaluated in six months, the amount of cognition used per person per day is 20%.

This is because we invest more resources when it comes to producing results in six months.

Then, the maximum number of projects that one person can run out of is 100% / 20% = 5 parallel operations.

If this is a project that will be evaluated after 3 years, the amount of recognition to be spent per day is about (20% per project) x 0.09 points / 0.5 points = 3.6%, discounted back from the comparison with the amount of results of the project after 6 months.

So, 100% ÷ 3.6% = maximum of 28 projects can be run in parallel.

However, it is not possible to parallel that many projects because additional cognitive capacity is required to switch quickly in proportion to the number of projects running simultaneously, and rather a high level of management structure and skill is required.

Yes, it ultimately translates into the question of "whether to fill a large amount of cognition in a small number of projects or to distribute a small amount of cognition well in a huge number of projects".

Which is the best choice?

If you ask that question, the axis of judgment should be what the workers want.

If they want to live at a leisurely pace for a long time, the best way to do so is to predict the overall load and its range over a long period of time, and to level it out well.

So you are running many thin projects simultaneously in a minimum unit of three years, while understanding the load risk of multiple switching with a small amount of cognizance.

It is difficult to explain such a background because it is complicated and hard to talk about, so when people say, "When I am at Mogic, I feel something different and my head spins so much that I get caught up in it.

Not because of that, but as an easy-to-understand motif, I ordered "fruits that require a lot of time and effort" and we all enjoyed them together, but, you know, that's just too much to say 100%.

Seeing the big picture in a mountain of work

If the snowflakes are piling up just when we have forgotten about them, if graduation signs line the streets, if the wind is blowing from the east to bring Spanish mackerel, if the end-of-year work is piling up just as it should, if the petals are falling before we have time to look at them slowly, then soon glossy black swallows will come from afar and the new year will begin, gliding smoothly along... The new year begins as if gliding smoothly by.

March and April, the time of year for something hectic.

In times like this, work comes pouring in, whether we like it or not.

I try to say "huh, hmm, hi," but there is nothing I can do about it.

I was going to say, "Let's just do our best and hang in there for now," but that didn't seem to suit me! I tried to say, "Let's do our best, let's hold on," but it just didn't seem to suit my nature, so I decided to stop and bravely cut corners.

"Oh, you're going to cut corners? I thought you were supposed to give me more horsepower here."

Some may say that.

However, if we look at the origin of the word "cutting corners" in an excusive manner, it is not far off the mark.

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Cutting corners
h ttps:// w.wiki/DHVo

Tenuki is a move made at a distance from the previous move in Go or Shogi without responding to it.

In general, it is not a good idea to cut corners in the middle of a battle or in situations that leave major flaws.

However, if there is no significant damage even if you cut corners, it is an important tactic to boldly cut corners and arrive at the big field first.

They may also cut corners in order not to completely define the form, but to leave flavors and overtones for later use.
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The important thing is the prerequisite: "If there is no significant damage even if you cut corners.

In the end, if you look at the big picture of a mountain of work, it is important to determine the center of gravity, which, if misjudged, can result in a great loss and, if done well, a great success.

It is a high-risk, high-return situation that can be quite detrimental if a wrong decision is made.

Entrepreneurship is a causal, messy, and roundabout profession.

Rebirth of the new Mogic

We are undergoing a major reorganization, probably the first in five years.

It will likely be officially posted on the site after April 1, but there is a lot of prep work to be done in advance.

Why now? So, I will try to describe it in a Q&A style this time.

Q: Why are you reorganizing now?
A: Because we have used up all the space in the organization we created five years ago, and it is too tight. You want to wear loose-fitting clothes.

Q: What does the new tissue look like?
A: The trunk is slimmer and the surroundings are tappier. I hope it will last about 5 years down the road as well.

Q: What did you pay attention to when reorganizing?
A: Unlike the last time (2019), this time there is a huge business system that supports the entire company and will be extended for several years to come, so we were careful to make it easy for the workers to receive the benefits of this system.

Q: What procedure was used to decide on the organization?
A: This was also different from the last time. Rough ideas were first discussed among the chiefs and above, and then it was decided where the functions should be located for maximum efficiency, and that these areas should be tentatively handled since the system would eventually be implemented. After that, we asked all the employees for their opinions, and finally finalized the idea.

I've been writing a lot of Q&A, and it's getting a bit too much.

In another month or so, it will be transformed into the new Mogic.

For clarity, please look forward to a completely redesigned organizational chart and branding of novelties such as business cards and envelopes.

turn a quick glance

When you run a company, there are random times when things go wrong, mistakes are made, things go as planned, and things get lucky.

To be precise, I think that the distribution may be statistically expressible due to the influence of structural behaviors, i.e., organization, job classification, work flow, etc., rather than "just seeming to come at random.

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Statistical Distribution
h ttps:// w.wiki/D6dZ

Statistical distribution refers to the distribution in a statistical population.

Statistical distributions include canonical, grand canonical, Rayleigh, Laplace, beta, Wishart, uniform, logistic, log-normal, Pareto, Dirichlet, error, hypergeometric, von Mises, extreme value, and truncated gamma distributions There are
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If daily events follow a statistical distribution, then we can build some kind of model.

Then, if you have a model, you can replace the parameters and simulate the model.

The ability to simulate states by parameters means that widths in the future can be predicted.

I think about such things, but this is of course why it is so difficult.

What is difficult about what?

We must first determine that axis to make it "statistically distributed" and do it.

For example, "I forgot to order supplies," "I was lucky enough to win a campaign," and "I was able to hire a good person." Should these be on the same plane, or not?

If you narrow it down to "forgot to order supplies," identify whether it is the frequency, the amount, the approval steps leading up to it, the relationships, or the conflict with other duties.

Assuming "forgot to order supplies" and "conflict with other work" is the main cause, we need to determine whether it is a target or an outlier, depending on whether it is a routine task or one that occurs very rarely.

But if we do too much, we are likely to be satisfied with the local optimum solution, and maybe we will take into account that if we stop working in a totally different department, this problem may not arise.

Yes, after all, when you get down to it, the goal is not to derive a solution, so I guess it is important to turn a casual gaze toward different levels of hierarchy and granularity.

A job that would be laughed at now.

After the first day of spring, when it is about to snow heavily, interns begin to graduate, as usual.

The earliest students receive job offers in January, and all graduate around July at the latest.

Someone always says, "Hey, interns, aren't they all going away?" but before you know it, new third-year students keep coming in, and soon a year goes by and you think the same thing again.

This year, as I followed their passing by my side, I suddenly wondered, "If I were a junior in college today, what would I be aiming for?

If you are a junior in college in 2025, you were born in 2003/Heisei 15, the year Roppongi Hills opened.

Topics in 2025, 1 in 7 people will be 75+ in later life, inflation/interest rates rising, continued conflict in the world, and generative AI.

Projections for 2025-20 years from now, they say that more than 60% of the jobs that exist today will be gone and new ones will be available.

Well, if there are a lot of jobs coming up that I don't know about yet, I'd like to be the first one to work on them.

If you do it, you'll soon become a leading expert.

But it's a profession I haven't seen yet, and how can I find it now?

Looking into the future as it is, I was afraid that I would only project my expectations and lose my sense of reality, so I looked up the occupations that have disappeared and those that have been created in the past 20 years to seek clues.

Occupations that have disappeared: video rental store clerks, photo laboratory staff, telephone operators, CD store clerks, telephone directory producers, TV and radio repair technicians, and bank teller service personnel.

Professions that were born: data scientist, machine learning engineer, influencer, digital marketer, food delivery delivery person, crowd worker, telemedicine coordinator, work style consultant, etc.

While I certainly feel that this is true when I lay it out like this, if I had said "I'm going to be an influencer in the future" in 2003, more than 20 years ago, I would have been either laughed out loud or taken aback with a "haha".

But the funny thing is that "influencers" are very common nowadays.

I think that if the "Mere Old Man" is able to find a new job within 20 years, it will be a job that people would laugh at now.

Prepare for when the wind eventually blows.

There is one policy, both corporate and personal, and that is to find the flow of time and not go against it.

When I was young, I was able to estimate that in five years, the broadband environment for PCs would spread to 80% of all households, so I looked for a place where I could launch a video distribution business.

When I started my business, it was the same year that tablets were being released right after smartphones came out, so I thought about how I could support online education for a long time by overlapping it with the declining birthrate and aging population.

Of course, the basic premise is that I sincerely want to do it, but even so, I can't do it on my own, so I try to give up quickly if the winds are not blowing in the right direction.

Lately, I have been feeling that something big is on the horizon again, and I have been stitching up a few pieces of fabric in preparation for when the winds will blow.

Uncomfortable, is that bad?

In this issue, I would like to delve a little deeper into the much-used word identity.

Identity, until now, has been roughly thought of as "what is unique to me" or "how I want to be seen by others.

To expand on this a bit, I'll quote some from the wiki.

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Identity (self-identity)
h ttps:// w.wiki/6585

In adolescence, knowing who you are is called establishing ego-identity.

According to the Dictionary of Psychology (1999), the definition is "the ability to respond affirmatively and with conviction to questions that place one's self within society, such as 'Who am I,' 'What is my path,' 'What is my purpose in life,' and 'What is the meaning of my existence?

abbreviation

The preparatory period during which social obligations and responsibilities are postponed in order to acquire ego-identity is called psychosocial moratorium, but this only represents a respite until identity is established, which Erikson himself viewed as a period of struggle in which adolescents struggle with a variety of issues.

During this period, the young man reorganizes the various parts of his self that he has acquired up to this point.

As a result, the youth is left with an appropriately chosen object to which he can pledge allegiance and an activity of self, while the negative aspects are discarded and established as an identity.
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Although biased toward a developmental psychology interpretation, it is indeed a straightforward definition: the ability to respond positively and confidently to oneself in society.

If we dare to invert this definition, it would be "answering neutrally, negatively, or ambiguously and unsurely about oneself in society," so this state of being, i.e., not being able to respond positively and confidently, is quite uncomfortable.

What do you do?"
I'm like, "Uh, well, I work during the week.

However, if we review the situation from a different angle, we feel that it is not all bad.

Because they are not sitting well, they think a lot, try, worry, and try to choose.

Because you feel uncomfortable, you take it seriously all the time, and someone cares about you that way.

Well, if you take the plunge and step out of one, you will find that you are comfortable no matter what the outcome is.

It's strange. When I think about it that way, it makes me think that companies are similar, even though they are not human.

When you start a business, you have to search, try, worry, and choose, uncomfortably, whether it is this business or that business.

You may have thought you were taking the shortcut, but you find yourself in a different place, or you may think you are taking the long way around, but it turns out to be a shortcut.

We have been doing things this way and that, and we still have our own "character" here and there along the way.

I am sure that if you don't pinch yourself on the bumpy road, your body won't remember what is important.

Then, as the company's operations become more proficient and results are achieved, you can rest assured that you are in good hands.

But unfortunately, it is short-lived and must continue to change in order to advance further.

After all these twists and turns and expansions, it seems to me that it is better to be uncomfortable than to be comfortable, and I think that "character" should not stand still.

I was wondering what governance is.

I have been aware of governance since the company was established 10 years ago.

We often hear of corporate governance, but as one would expect from a large organization, such a framework is overblown, so we have been searching for something a little more unique to us.

Let's start with governance, the definition of a word that you may or may not understand.

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Governance
h ttps:// w.wiki/CjpQ

Governance refers to any process of governance.

It is clear that this is a broad concept used for governments, corporations, and other organizations, as well as for territories, IT systems, and power.

In governance, stakeholders shape, strengthen, or reconfigure social norms and institutions through their interactions and decisions.
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If we interpret it in our own way, what is still important is to "reconfigure it for good through the interaction of the people involved.

At Mogic, we want to continue to be a safe presence for everyone involved, both inside and outside the company.

The framework of the organization should be shared as much as possible to gather opinions, if there are conflicts of interest, they should be discussed until everyone involved is satisfied, and if you have great authority, you should have the appropriate responsibility and ethics, and never let anyone lose money for someone else's gain.

When written in this way, they are all normal.

Still, we are trying to bump up our version of the familiar normal, however small or trivial, by bumping up the newly discussed normal.