Mogic considers

In the very long run.

Some time ago, the hypothesis of Skill-Biased Technological Progress (or Skill-Biased Technological Change: SBTC) was used to explain the disparity problem.

The idea was that the acquisition of new skills not previously available would create a rise in income, which later became known as STEM education, and programming education began in schools and was learned as reskilling in the workforce.

For reference, STEAM education (an extension of STEM) from the wiki

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STEAM Education
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEAM%E6%95%99%E8%82%B2

STEAM education is a method of education that integrates STEM education (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) with Arts (Liberal Arts). STEM education is an educational approach that integrates Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics with Arts.

STEAM education develops the mathematical and scientific foundations of student children while teaching them to think critically (critical thinking) and apply technology and engineering to address problems that exist in the real world through imaginative and creative approaches.
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It is tied to the argument that wage growth is lower in Japan than in other developed countries, but it is worth thinking a little bit about whether a reskilling education in the DX era really improves the earnings of companies and raises the income of individuals.

In the very long run, it could be about income redistribution, which came about after the industrial revolution of the 20th century, or it could be about how you want to spend your life.

north wind, this one goes away

The wind blew and scattered the leaves of maple trees, and it became much colder.

One month from now, today is beyond Christmas and close to New Year's, so I honestly feel like this is for real.

I was making New Year's decorations next to the tree that I was diligently decorating, and I was in a very busy end-of-year mode.

Looking back at the resolutions I made at the beginning of this year, I see half of what I see and half of what I don't see, like the moon among the clouds.

We know we can't really make it in time, but we are trying to do it in a hurry and are dashing as fast as we can in a wrinkled master's race.

Something to believe in growth.

Spend your money and time on things you believe will grow."

is an easy-to-understand expression and is a criterion for making an investment decision.

In the case of a company, it is easy to answer the questions: Does a stylish interior design lead to growth, does launching a new service lead to growth, does increasing the number of workers lead to growth, does prominent advertising lead to growth, does providing more customer support lead to growth, does providing ample training lead to growth? Does more customer support lead to growth?

The same is true for individuals: can you grow by dressing up, starting something new, working more hours, being socially appealing, taking care of your health and relationships, or studying every day?

As you make more and more judgments in this way, you begin to talk about one layer higher: "What is growth that I can believe in?" and "For whom is this growth really for?

Since only we know, we have no choice but to polish the sparkles we can believe in while answering the questions we are asked.

The Culture of Discussion, the Beginning

Mogic has always had a culture of digging deep into themes within the company, and this culture has its origins in a conversation between two board members.

We have been talking three times a week for more than a decade, for a total of at least three hours, and it always starts with material that is far removed from the company or business.

Recently

I was kicked by martial artist Andy Hug when I was younger."
In the majors, they've recently been using a machine called iPitch to recreate the pitcher's ball.
There's a phenomenon where if my kids are on their phones, they stop taking care of their dogs."
Or, "The Roman army, with their heavy cavalry equipment, is pretty amazing."

It's completely unrelated, but I find that it leads to insights that are relevant to business and management.

If you think about it, management is about extracting the essence from many different events, so perhaps this is training for that.

Don't hesitate!

I attended a wedding for the first time in a long time that had all but disappeared due to the Corona disaster.

I've been talking to relatives of working members.

I think it's great that as a company, they've managed to make something that seems like a waste of time not so much. It looks like fun to work there."

I was grateful for the kind words.

It is most gratifying to be seen as such by those around you.

If the length of life is 80 years, I feel it is better to have 64 years of fun and 16 years of patience than to have 16 years worth of fun and 80% of patience, which is equivalent to 20%.

I'd like to shorten the time period a bit more, and I'd rather have 292 fun days than have to endure 292 days out of the year.

The idea is the same for an even shorter 7-hour workday.

As an extreme hypothetical, if we consider that the sum of the pleasant hours of life is an extension of the sum of the pleasant hours of a day, we cannot neglect the significance of working even for a single day.

This creates the proposition that working = doing one's requested work properly and at the same time, the enjoyment felt by the individual must be superimposed and realized.

The best thing is that despite the same job description, he/she will enjoy it, not endure it! The best thing would be that he/she can think of it as fun, not as endurance, even though the work is the same.

I believe that the only way to achieve this is to take a long time and learn from various people and their different perspectives on various occasions.

As a result, the company does not hesitate to develop events or create services that it would not normally undertake.

Goodbye, Cooking Dept.

Before the Corona disaster, we had a cooking club and often made sweets at work.

Usually the interns got involved, and I now have good memories of being roasted gingko nuts on the roof, roasting green coffee beans, and kneading flour to make cookies.

But times have passed and circumstances have changed, which means that we have busted out the cooking supplies.

Iron pans, small wooden plates, ceramic platters, spoons, chopsticks, teacups, mugs, decorative glass plates, tortilla machines.

I remember the party we had when we got oysters directly from Atsukishi with this, and how we went to the trouble of ordering corn flour and made tacos with it, and how we piled up croquettes in a heap with it, and all the things I miss.

While a large amount of cooking supplies were gone, the DIY shelves that had been on display were also dismantled.

We are half sad and half refreshed, and a new project is beginning to run.

Pursuing a moment to shine

At the beginning of a new term, we begin to investigate the level of accuracy of the forecasts we came up with just one year ago.

As I talk and write here and there, I carefully collect them one by one and see what has been displaced. Strangely enough, the gap between expectation and reality has lessened as the years have passed.

Of course, this is because we have found and addressed the factors that caused the discrepancies, but I think the biggest reason is that we now have a gradation of expectations.

We estimate at a 90% predictability level for projects that we can control, at a 60% predictability level for those that we work with close outsiders, and at a 15% predictability level for completely new business plans.

The degree of predictability is not vague, but is determined by synthesizing the extent to which the elements are comprehensively identified, the range of variation for each element, the degree of interaction among the elements, the order in which they affect each other, and whether the intensity of the elements themselves will increase or decrease.

Once the degree of predictability is determined, we can then create a formula to express it and let the computer do the simulation, or use graphic symbols to decipher the flow.

Take the example of a project to launch a new service.

There is one project manager, one designer, and one engineer. Of the three, the designer is inexperienced and wants to use an unknown technology for the new service, and the projection level is 80%, as he wants to create the new service in approximately 4 months.

The unpredictable 20% is mainly due to the level of growth of the members, the availability of unknown technology and alternative options, how the concept is put together, and how it fits in with other work, so if we tighten the project at key points to keep the variability there in an appropriate range, we can probably do it.

That said, it's no trick to only make things highly predictable, so I always weave in less predictable things and chase after the moments that flash before my eyes.

Knots that cannot be untied normally

If you are alone, or if a problem occurs in a team, it is difficult to identify the cause of the problem.

Emotionally, you could just say, "It's his fault," morally, you could say, "One for all. It's everyone's fault," and data-wise, we can opine, "There's a bottleneck in the workflow.

In response to each, "someone says sorry, we talk about trusting each other more, we try to devise a number check," but what if it still doesn't work?

I quote a straightforward expression from a book on causation.

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The Science of Causal Reasoning "Why? How to answer the question "Why?
https://books.bunshun.jp/ud/book/num/9784163915968

For these problems, we immediately come up with the solution of dividing the numbers into a finite and tractable number of categories.

While there is nothing wrong with this solution in principle, it would make category setting somewhat arbitrary.

Also, if the number of variables to be adjusted is greater than a certain number, the number of categories could increase exponentially.

This would make this approach practically inapplicable.

Moreover, in this case, it is possible that not a single element is present in many of the categories.

In that case, the probability would not be estimated at all.

This problem has been called the "curse of dimensionality," and statisticians have come up with some excellent ways to deal with it.

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It means that factors that we have not come up with in our past experiences, sensations, and conventions are secretly lying dormant and causing bad behavior, and of course, there are most likely multiple factors in a chain of events.

And then, how do you solve it? Unfortunately, it seems that the only way is to take a good amount of time and painstakingly and patiently consider the situation.

From another quote about how it is

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It's quite simple, Miss Watson.

Sherlock Holmes would say this, and then, as we all know, he would usually surprise his trusted assistant, Watson, with a deduction that was not very easy.

abbreviation

Holmes has other famous lines.

From that, we can see how he thinks.

Here's the line.

When you eliminate the improbable one by one, what remains at the end, no matter how improbable it may seem, is the truth."

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We live in a world of Corona disaster, yen depreciation, inflation, and more knots that cannot be untied normally.