Mogic considers

Pursuing a moment to shine

At the beginning of a new term, we begin to investigate the level of accuracy of the forecasts we came up with just one year ago.

As I talk and write here and there, I carefully collect them one by one and see what has been misaligned. Strangely enough, the gap between expectation and reality has lessened as the years have passed.

Of course, this is because we have found and addressed the factors that caused the discrepancies, but I think the biggest reason is that we now have a gradation of expectations.

We estimate at a 90% predictability level for projects that we can control, at a 60% predictability level for those that we work with close outsiders, and at a 15% predictability level for completely new business plans.

The degree of predictability is not vague, but is determined by synthesizing the extent to which the elements are comprehensively identified, the range of variation for each element, the degree of interaction among the elements, the order in which they affect each other, and whether the intensity of the elements themselves will increase or decrease.

Once the degree of predictability is determined, we can then create a formula to express it and let the computer do the simulation, or use graphic symbols to decipher the flow.

Take the example of a project to launch a new service.

There is one project manager, one designer, and one engineer. Of the three, the designer is inexperienced and wants to use an unknown technology for the new service, and the projection level is 80%, as he wants to create the new service in approximately 4 months.

The unpredictable 20% is mainly due to the level of growth of the members, the availability of unknown technology and alternative options, how the concept is put together, and how it fits in with other work, so if we tighten the project at key points to keep the variability there in an appropriate range, we can probably do it.

That said, it's no trick to only make things highly predictable, so I always weave in less predictable things and chase after the moments that flash before my eyes.

Knots that cannot be untied normally

If you are alone, or if a problem occurs in a team, it is difficult to identify the cause of the problem.

Emotionally, you could just say, "It's his fault," morally, you could say, "One for all. It's everyone's fault," and data-wise, we can opine, "There's a bottleneck in the workflow.

In response to each, "someone says sorry, we talk about trusting each other more, we try to devise a number check," but what if it still doesn't work?

I quote a straightforward expression from a book on causation.

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The Science of Causal Reasoning "Why? How to Answer the Question "Why?
Judia Pearl (Author), Dana McKenzie (Author), Yutaka Matsuo (Supervisor), Dai Natsume (Translator)
h ttps:// books.bunshun.jp/ud/book/num/9784163915968

For these problems, we immediately come up with the solution of dividing the numbers into a finite and tractable number of categories.

While there is nothing wrong with this solution in principle, it would make category setting somewhat arbitrary.

Also, if the number of variables to be adjusted is greater than a certain number, the number of categories could increase exponentially.

This would make this approach practically inapplicable.

Moreover, in this case, it is possible that not a single element is present in many of the categories.

In that case, the probability would not be estimated at all.

This problem has been called the "curse of dimensionality," and statisticians have come up with some excellent ways to deal with it.

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It means that factors that we have not come up with in our past experiences, sensations, and conventions are secretly lying dormant and causing bad behavior, and of course, there are most likely multiple factors in a chain of events.

And then, how do you solve it? Unfortunately, it seems that the only way is to take a good amount of time and painstakingly and patiently consider the situation.

From another quote about how it is

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It's quite simple, Miss Watson.

Sherlock Holmes would say this, and then, as we all know, he would usually surprise his trusted assistant, Watson, with a deduction that was not very easy.

abbreviation

Holmes has other famous lines.

From that, we can see how he thinks.

Here's the line.

When you eliminate the improbable one by one, what remains at the end, no matter how improbable it may seem, is the truth."

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We live in a world of Corona disaster, yen depreciation, inflation, and more knots that cannot be untied normally.

New Year's calendar ayahuasca

Every year in October, they start all together to prepare for the end of the year.

In particular, the Nenga application project and the New Year's calendar project compete with each other, but this year the atmosphere is somewhat different.

Compared to the New Year's greeting card application, which started smoothly with the new interns meeting each other, the calendar project seemed to be completely stuck in the scene.

That's because the 10th anniversary of LearnO is coming to a climax, and everything is packed into the months of October and November.

We can't force it, because we can't do anything good.

I think we can give up on the New Year's calendar."

And if you help him out...

My mother enjoys using it.
Next year, I would like you to make some changes to the trees on the stand.
It would be nice to have more than one page a month.

And from here and there, we keep coming back to the premise of creating a calendar.

It must be really hard to make a calendar from scratch, but Mogic's love of calendars is extraordinary.

Now let's see if we can do it and if we will have any luck.

breaker fails and one's bones sink deeply into one's body

When I first started my business, I used to drop breakers in one of the apartments I rented.

If you turn on the air conditioner, put 4 computers on the floor, and boil water, it will go down quickly.

I fell in and out of it too many times a day! I was so mad that I started learning electrical engineering.

I fantasized about eventually increasing the amperage, putting a server there, and turning half the room into a data center, but I soon realized it was a foolhardy scheme.

If you think about it, it is obvious, and lives are at stake.

Because you can be in immediate danger or you can be in gradual danger.

If electricity leaks, it can cause an electric shock, and if the resistance increases with age, sparks can fly.

Thanks to the breakers dropping too much back then, I now know my way around electricity: distribution boards, power boards, RCDs, breakers, grounding, VVF cables, crimping pliers, and joint boxes.

When starting something, momentum is important.

It is equally important to understand the background and to inspect and maintain it, without wanting to be numb to it anymore.

Security starts with education

We have received third-party ISMS certification for the handling of information assets.

I'll leave the details to the press release.

https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000090.000004876.html

We had formed our own risk audit committee several years ago to check this and that, but we decided that this would be difficult to communicate externally, so we started the committee in April of this year.

Reference Article] Sexual Malpractice and the Audit Zanmai 2021.11.15
h ttps:// www.mogic.jp/philosophy/?aid=12823

Even though LearnO Services is celebrating its 10th anniversary and is in the midst of rebranding its services, we were all able to work together to maintain the service.

Since we are involved in the educational IT business, we will continue to take all possible educational measures to ensure information security so as not to be in the dark under the lamp.

Ask Money Literacy

It seems that everywhere in the world, people are uncertain about how to handle money, and people interviewed for an international documentary program said, "Paycheck to paycheck, because this country (despite being a developed country) doesn't teach money literacy at all. （People interviewed for an international documentary program said, "Paycheck to paycheck, because this country (despite being a developed country) doesn't teach money literacy at all.

I have been hearing more and more about financial planning in Japan, but I suddenly became concerned that I may not have actually had a firm grasp of what money literacy means.

So what is money literacy to those around you? I asked them.

I think it's important to keep track of all the money coming in and going out, as well as the money that remains on hand. People don't see a breakdown of the taxes deducted from their paychecks.

It's the ability to think about what it means when you spend money. Money is something that you can spend as soon as you want it. It's whether or not you can think about what it will be useful for and how much and when before you buy it.

'You have to understand early on the three major expenses of life. Education, housing, and retirement require a long time to prepare. You have to have time on your side."

"It's whether you can color the money yourself. The same 100,000 yen can be 100,000 in savings, or 50,000 for my future skills plus 30,000 for gifts to those around me plus 20,000 for investments, I'm free to do whatever I want."

The results were surprisingly staggering.

The fact that the answers are so varied probably means that they are so difficult.

Since this is a type of talk that is as invisible and undefinable as health, happiness, and joie de vivre, it seems to me that it would be a good idea to at least spend some time discussing it with others to gain a better understanding of it.

Chord progressions you don't know yet

I am creating an accordion chord progression for a company event.

I started a week ago out of necessity and was able to do a little.

As I was doing this, I realized that it had become much easier to start something I didn't know compared to the past.

You can order an instrument with a click of a button, quickly search for sheet music online, watch a different video if you don't understand it, inquire if you have trouble, upload the video if it works, and connect with someone's comment.

In the past, I would look for a music store in the next town, go there and find that it was closed, go there the next day and find that what I wanted was out of stock, order it and find that it was a little different from what I imagined, practice in front of limited sheet music and get stumped.

So, the time has come for a good day to come up with a good idea.

That said, it is unfortunate that it is not always possible to master one new thing after another.

Just as the time and effort required to get started has been shortened, the internal barriers come one after another without mercy.

It's like being interested, starting to do it, getting confused, getting bored, accomplishing a little, but not achieving anything noteworthy, being disappointed by someone who is good at it, and preparing many plausible excuses to forget about it in frustration, before realizing what to do after all.

It seems that no matter how much the environment improves, in the end we still have to find our unknown selves and expose that progression in a faltering manner.

Three-tier management issues

The biggest bottleneck in creating an organization is probably the three-tier management problem.

There are superiors and there are subordinates, this is a two-tier system.

There is the boss's boss, the boss's boss, and the subordinate's subordinate, which is the three levels.

If it's your own direct subordinate, it's easy to advise, "Do this." but not if it is your own subordinate's subordinate.

The reason is that there are more people to begin with, and it doesn't make sense in the long run to teach by jumping through the hierarchy.

And, as you may have noticed, the three-tier management is much more difficult because all the targets are not visible.

This becomes a bottleneck in organizational development.

Because of the high degree of difficulty, no one can handle three levels of management so easily.

Furthermore, there are few third-level positions themselves, so there are limited opportunities for training in practice.

A simple formula will show that the speed at which the organization grows as the workload increases will lightly overtake the time required to develop the three levels of management skills.

We do not know exactly what kind of frayed edges will appear in the organization as a result.

But it doesn't hurt to make a lot of simulation models of the organization in advance, and we can discuss the possibilities.