Mogic considers

bad things will happen in rapid succession

We often see explosive growth, or exponential amplification.

To put it simply, it is a graph that is growing steadily and quickly toward the upper right corner of the graph.

Because it is intuitively positive, it is often used to make an appeal in business settings.

Contrary to this, however, "exponential decay" is almost never mentioned.

The graph that sinks into the lower right corner, which seemed to make more sense than expected, so I will try to deepen it.

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Exponential decay
h ttps:// w.wiki/6Jsy

Exponential decay, or exponential decay, is the rate at which a quantity decreases is proportional to the amount by which it decreases.
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This is a bit circuitous, so let me try to express it with a simple example.

What would happen if there were 1000 treats and 10% of that time was lost each day? Let's assume that

1st day: 1000 pieces - 100 pieces * 10% = 900 pieces
2nd day: 900 pieces - 900 pieces * 10% = 810 pieces
3rd day: 810 pieces - 810 pieces * 10% = 729 pieces
4th day: 729 pieces - 729 pieces * 10% = 656 pieces
5th day: 656 pieces - 656 pieces*10% = 590 pieces
・・・・・
Day 10: 387 pieces - 387 pieces*10% = 349 pieces
・・・・・
Day 15: 228 pieces - 228 pieces*10% = 206 pieces
・・・・・
Day 20: 135 - 135 * 10% = 121
・・・・・
30th day: 47 - 47 * 10% = 42

What I can roughly tell is that there is a sudden decrease at the beginning, and the rest is blah.

If it were linear, it would proceed more leisurely, and this would be the most important characteristic of exponential decreasing.

So if you feel, "Oh, why did things suddenly get worse?" and then "Why do bad things keep piling up?" you may be indicating exponential decay.

How should we think about applying this phenomenon in business?

To do so, we must first understand the "background of exponential, not linear".

If we cannot identify the conditions under which the exponential effect is at work, the comparison with linear will be meaningless.

The expectation that immediately comes to mind is that if the elements in a group (set) are independent and discrete, it is likely to be linear, and if the elements are connected to each other like a network, it will be exponential.

If we take "happiness" as an example, the elements that make up happiness (money to spend as one pleases, job satisfaction, dependable friends and family, one's own identity, free time, comfortable environment, etc.) are interconnected, so if even one of them deteriorates, the chain of events will cause a rapid decline in happiness. If even one of these factors deteriorates, it will cause a rapid decline in happiness.

There may be others, but please note that this is just a small application.

Then the guiding principle would be, "If a situation is found that deteriorates rapidly, it should not be treated as a single cause," and "Operations that span many departments must be tackled first, even though they are difficult.

We won't know until we try it, but it will at least prepare us for a rapidly worsening event.

Hell's lid opens and closes.

We will be on Obon vacation for about 9 days starting tomorrow.

Since this is a slightly longer vacation, preparations are being made here and there.

I water my desk plants, set up auto-replies to inquiries, check the emergency contact network in case of emergencies, and check the door locks in places I might accidentally leave.

Yeah, well, we all know this area very well, so it is as stable as usual.

A sense of stability that moves forward without missing a beat, ummm, and therefore a sense of uneasiness that arises from the question, "Is this the right thing to do?

It's because of the unchanging Obon that we can stop and think about it for a moment.

So, I have done a little research on Obon.

I will start by quoting the origin from wiki.

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h ttps:// w.wiki/3snB

It is called "Bon" (generally "Obon") as an abbreviation of the Buddhist term "Uranbonkai.

Bon" literally means a container in which offerings to the spirits are placed, so it became a name for the spirits who are enshrined with offerings, and some say that it became confused with Uran-bon and merged with Uran-bon.

In Chinese culture, there is a custom, centering on Taoism, to designate the seventh month of the lunar calendar as the "demon month. The belief that the lid of hell opens on the first day of the seventh lunar month and closes on the 15th day of the seventh lunar month, the Zhong Yuan Festival, is thought to have been influenced by Taoism.

The Mid-Yuan Festival is still celebrated with great fanfare as an ancestor worship event, especially in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and southern China.

The definite origin of the tray is not known.

It is said that the early spring festival became a New Year's festival because it emphasized the divine status of the ancestral spirit as the god of the year, and the early autumn festival became a Buddhist event by merging with Uran-bon. The early autumn version is said to have merged with Uran-bon, and became a Buddhist event.

In Japan, the custom of holding ancestral memorial services in summer is believed to have been established around the 8th century.

abbreviation

On the evening of the 16th, the day after the 15th Bon festival, men and women of all ages gather at temples and shrines to dance, which is called Bon Odori.

It is said to imitate the state of joyous dancing of the departed who have been spared the torments of hell. It is the climax of the summer festival.

Note that the newly held Bon Dances are often held at a slightly different time of the year to avoid competition with other Bon Dances.
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Obon as a traditional event that has existed for more than 1,000 years.

Ancestral offerings, offerings to the spirits, and Taoist and Buddhist influences are all intertwined in Obon.

Obon dance to prevent new Bon Odori from being clashed with other Bon Odori.

The image that comes to mind is that of an outcropping where various thoughts of each era are folded and piled up.

It is a tray that does not seem to be a straightforward process, but it is what it is.

This must be a rare time when the lid of hell opens and then closes again, so I hope that we will be able to nourish our spirits during this period of dimensional overlap and push forward toward the New Year.